Your new United States Congressman will be...

The one who takes these three positions
The Massachusetts 10th District includes all or part of five counties

By Walter Brooks

About halfway between the rabid Right and the loony Left beats the heat of the average 10th District voter who will pick your new member in the United States House of Representatives on November 2, 2010.

Keep in mind that the 10th Massachusetts Congressional District starts in Quincy and ends in Provincetown.

The 10th district includes:

Two-thirds of the probable voters are on the South Shore and one-third on the Cape and Islands.

Plymouth County had the same population explosion as Cape Cod when the Interstate Highways were built after WW2, and today is a half million having grown 5.4% in the last decade when the Cape's population was stagnant. In 1950 the population was 190,000, or 40% of what it is today.

The 10th District primary races:

Democrats Rob O'Leary, Barnstable, vs Bill Keating, Quincy.
Republicans Joe Malone, Scituate vs. Jeff Perry, Sandwich.

That post-war growth brought Boston area transplants with largely Democratic voting habit and the countt's registered voters are now 30% Democratic, 14% Republican and 56% Independent.

Barnstable County: Today the voters on Cape Cod tend to be more liberal although until 1972 it was more conservative. The population was 46,000 in 1950 and is over a quarter million today. During the population explosion on Cape Cod following the Second World War and the construction of Route 3 and the Mid Cape Highway, the towns on in Barnstable County were jammed with new residents from Greater Boston who brought their Democratic voting habits with them.

A later boom of Boston daily commuters doubled the population around Sandwich and these folks were largely Republicans which accounts for the Cape's lone GOP State Rep Jeff Perry.

Norfolk County: Quincy has the highest percentage of registered voters in the 10th District, and they are 36% Democrat, 12% Republican and 51% Independent. Bill Keating now lives there, and it's the same place present congressman Bill Delahunt was from when he was elected in 1997 where he had been a district attorney of Norfolk County for more than 20 years, the job Bill Keating present holds.

Here are the three positions which will determine which of the four major candidates win:

1. The Gulf Oil Spill

None of the present congressional contenders seem focused on the BP oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico, yet a New York Times headline last week warned:

Spill Is Election Issue Far Beyond Gulf

The article went on to state:

Candidates from coast to coast - and many states in between - are redirecting their campaigns in an emotional, frantic effort to turn the oil spill to political advantage... Candidates for governor from Massachusetts to Florida now stump for novel ideas to plug the hole (why not air bags?) and to clean up the mess (hair, hay, bacteria?), while in Washington, each party insists that the spill will help it in November.

In the minds of politicians and strategists, the oil has practically become a giant ink blot, a Rorschach test in which each of the opposing sides sees proof of "the larger narrative."

In an interview with one of the candidate two weeks ago he seemed surprised and perplexed when I suggested he get really concerned about how voters feel about this issue.

As usual, the voters who go to the polls are smarter than most their representatives, just listen to C-SPAN some day when the US Senate or House is holding committee meetings.

2. Jobs

Some voters in the 10th District have been out of work now for two years while the unemployment rate stands at over 9% down from the high of 10.4% in January this year. That was the highest it's been since January 1992.

The next four monthly unemployment reports will be released during the run-up to the midterm Congressional election on November 2, and may spell doom for many incumbents of pols who haven't figured out what to say to voters on this hot button issue.

The United States added just 83,000 private sector jobs in June, according to the monthly statistical snapshot released by the Labor Department. The unemployment rate declined to 9.5percent, from 9.7 percent in May. But that was a largely illusorydecline, as 652,000 Americans left the work force.

3. Support Cape Wind

According to the most recent study by the Congressional Budget Office,released in 2005, capital investments like oil field leases anddrilling equipment are taxed at an effective rate of 9 percent,significantly lower than the overall rate of 25 percent for businessesin general and lower than virtually any other industry.

And for many small and mid-size oil companies, the tax on capital investments several is so low that it is more than eliminated by various credits. These companies’ returns on those investments are often higher after taxes than before. BP has even been getting $225,000 a day from our government while destroying the Gulf of Mexico, see the front page of the New York Times today.

In recent statewide surveys over 85% of voters were in favor of Cape Wind, even 67% in favor on Cape Cod and the islands, and Governor Deval Patrick was elected while the only candidate in either party who endorsed Cape Wind in 2006.

During the recent Democratic State Convention The Governor Deval Patrick made an impassioned defense of his record,including taking credit for the Cape Wind victory.  During his videointroduction, a Cape Wind clip got the biggest applause from the 4,000delegates in the hall.

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