Florida GOP Primary Odds

Time For Another Flordida Election

I apologize for skipping the South Carolina primary. To prepare for the Super Bowl, I went on a 5 day Bath Salts rampage in upstate New Hampshire. After speaking to the spirits of my ancestors, I was ready to return to Massachusetts and begin to Hate.

We'll discuss Hate over in the Sports Desk column, but today we're talking Politics. The very important Florida GOP Primary goes down on the 31st. It's anyone's ballgame at this point. Rick Santorum got a late win in Iowa, Mitt Romney won New Hampshire in a rout, and Newt Gingrich took South Carolina.

Here's a link to the Florida debate.

We've already waded through the wannabes, and no longer have Michele Bachmann, Rick Perry, or Uncle Herm Cain to amuse us. It's basically a 4 dog race. Whoever takes the Florida vote will be the clear front runner heading into a run of Nevada, Maine, Colorado and others. The next closed primary is Arizona, on February 28th.

Odds to win the Florida Primary

Newt Gingrich 1/3... The Newt made a nice comeback after Romney trounced him in NH and Ron Paul painted him as a chickenhwak. He seems to be the choice of Southerners who won't vote for a Massachusetts Mormon Moderate. We may end up with a GOP nominee who is looked upon as a fool in any state that doesn't have a Grits option on the breakfast menu.

One GOP consultant noted that Herm Cain's endorsement of Newt was "one philanderer endorsing the other."

Mitt Romney 2/1... Maybe I was on point with my thoughts that a lot of Americans don't want a recession President who has never had a financial worry worse than "I'm not the wealthiest kid in my exclusive prep school." Mitt can still win, but a loss means that he got trashed by both Newt Gingrich and Ted Kennedy. That would make Mitt pretty much straight-up Ho.

I personally see Romney as even or ahead of Newt, but I don't set the odds. Some Florida polls have Mitt leading by a wide margin. For now, we're giving Newt the home field advantage.

Ron Paul 50/1... The last reasonable man in this fight, if you consider withdrawing from the UN and the 9/11 Truth movement to be reasonable. He's made both Romney and Gingrich look like his bitch at different points in different debates. A strategy of "Be Folksy And Wait For Newt And Mitt To Tear Each Other Apart" doesn't seem that bad in this scrap.

Rick Santorum 50/1... He's riding the momentum of his 15 vote pseudowin in Iowa, as well as his thrashing in New Hamster. Pairing this campaign with his losing Pennsylvania bid, one may conclude that only a hidden streak of Masochism is keeping him in politics at this point.

What will Mitt Romney’s effective tax rate be for 2010 if and when he releases it on Tuesday January 24th?

Over 15.5 % -140
Under 15.5 % EVEN

I hear Mitt say "Around 15%," so I'll assume he means around 13%.

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