Week 4 NFL Picks

Thirty days hath September...

9/30 1:00 ET New England -3.5 At Buffalo 50.5

New England is 1-2 and in free-fall mode. A loss to Buffy would be back-breaking.

The bad part of this game is Buffalo's revamped DL, featuring sack machine Mario Williams and former Patriot Mark Anderson. They should make life very difficult for Tom Brady, and could singlehandedly put $3 million into the hands of Brian Waters.

Buffy has two top-notch running backs, but both are inujured. Their QB is playing for a contract. Their WR corps could use some help. They have a terrific offensive line.

I still don't think that the Pats are losing-three-in-a-row bad, however, and I plan to bet accordingly.

Pats, 24-20

9/30 1:00 ET At Detroit -4 Minnesota 48.5

Detroit's new starting running back was arrested twice in a month for marijuana possession, and the War On Drugs never looks good when such a guy runs wild over a bunch of professionals like he did last week.

Detroit, 14-10

9/30 1:00 ET At Atlanta -7 Carolina 48.5

Atlanta looks to be a Super Bowl contender this season, although they still have the offensive line difficulties that doomed them in the playoffs last year.

Hotlanta, 28-19

9/30 1:00 ET San Francisco -4 At NY Jets 41.5

I think that the Gods have it in for NY this season, and this game will be one of the lightning strikes. I can't wait for the Tebow push and the coaching change.

49ers, 21-3

9/30 1:00 ET San Diego -1.5 At Kansas City 44.5

Jamaal Charles can run for 230 yards again this week with my blessing, because I stole him in a later round for my fantasy team. People were afraid of his surgically repaired knee, but not I.

KC, 17-15

9/30 1:00 ET At Houston -12 Tennessee 44.5

Remember, New England was only a five point favorite to beat Tennessee, and that was before we knew for sure that Chris Johnson was shot as a big-play threat.

Houston, 21-14

9/30 1:00 ET Seattle -3 At St. Louis 39

Although Seattle has the most famous Hail Mary play outside of Flutie/Phelan, St. Louis has the best guy in the NFL to throw a Hail Mary to- WR Danny Amendola. He has "Amen" in his name, for the love of Mary.

Muslim quarterbacks may prefer the similar Suicide Bomber play, which would then give Amendola's primacy to Bengals rookie Mohammed Sanu.

St. Louis, 10-9

9/30 4:05 ET At Arizona -5 Miami 39

Arizona is 3-0, and probably worthy of a higher point spread.

Arizona, 14-7

9/30 4:05 ET At Denver -7 Oakland 48.5

Peyton is throwing picks left and right this year, but he should be able to whip up on Oakland easily enough.

Denver, 17-10

9/30 4:05 ET Cincinnati -1 At Jacksonville 43.5

BenJarvus Green-Ellis dropped the baby for the first time in his career last week.

Cincy, 18-10

9/30 4:25 ET At Green Bay -7.5 New Orleans 53
I'm pretty sure that this is the afternoon game broadcast here. Green Bay will be out for blood after that ref gaffe last week.

Green Bay, 38-37


9/30 4:25 ET At Tampa Bay -2 Washington 47.5

RGIII looks like the real thing, and Tampa shouldn't be favored.

DC, 25-22

9/30 8:30 ET At Philadelphia -2.5 NY Giants 47.5

Some fine Sunday night entertainment for us. I still think the Giants are the NFL's best team, they're just a little groggy when they season begins. You'd normally ascribe this trait to the Bears, but Giants are much larger than Bears, and equally susceptible to early-season sluggishness.

NYG, 18-17


10/1 8:35 ET At Dallas -3.5 Chicago 42

This is a game that the Cowboys need to win so as to set the stage for their inevitable late season collapse. Cowboys are sort of like the anti-Bears. You should be able to get to bed somewhat early on Monday night.

Dallas, 21-10


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